The Friday List: 10 for 2010
The impact of President-elect Barack Obama's rapid rise through the political ranks -- elected Senator in 2004 and president four years later -- is already being felt in the campaign world as scads of would-be senators and governors are emerging in the early days of the 2010 cycle
Call it the Obama effect -- an emboldening of already ambitious men and women who see the former Illinois Senator as an example that anything is possible in the unpredictable world of campaign politics.
Given what recruiters -- particularly on the Democratic side -- are describing as too many rather than too few candidates (not everyone who thinks they can be a statewide elected official is right), who should Fixistas keep an eye on in 2010? Who are the real stars-in-waiting out there?
The Fix -- ever cognizant of the needs of his readers -- has compiled a list to do just that. Below you'll find the 10 candidates/politicians to watch in 2010, the people who are likely to emerge as stars (or at least have the potential to do so) in the coming months. (Because we are not ranking them, they are listed in alphabetical order.)
Because the political landscape shifts on a day to day basis, this list, too, is decidedly changeable. So, we'll update our 10 for 2010 intermittently to provide Fixistas with the freshest knowledge out there.
Have candidates of your own to watch in 2010? Offer them in the comments section. If consensus emerges, we will add them to this post.
To the Line/List!
* Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next Senator for Colorado was "Who?". Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic Senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed Senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.
* Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan". The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.
* Chris Christie: The former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey entered the race for governor earlier this week -- and is regarded, at least by Washington insiders, as the likeliest candidate to emerge to take on Gov. Jon Corzine (D) this fall. Christie is a popular figure in the state thanks to his crusading reputation and attempts to clean up New Jersey's notoriously dirty politics but has never before run for elected office. Republicans continue to insist New Jersey is a state they can win and believe Christie is the candidate to do it.
* John Cornyn/Pete Sessions: The two Texans in charge of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee respectively have a daunting task on their hands. With Democrats in charge of every lever of power in Washington, Cornyn and Sessions must find a way to convince candidates to take a leap of faith that things will get better for their party in the coming years. Recruiting is the first step in the path back to a majority for Republicans and Sessions and Cornyn are on the front lines. How convincing can they be?
* Artur Davis: It's hard to see how any prospective 2010 candidate benefited more from Obama's election that this four-term Congressman from Alabama. Davis, a friend of the president-elect and fellow Harvard Law School graduate, will use the successful blueprint of Obama (run as a change agent who happens to be black, not the other way around) in what promises to be a terrific race for the open Alabama governor's seat. If he makes it through a VERY tough primary, watch for Davis' general election candidacy to draw considerable national attention.
* Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.
* Tim Kaine: The newly-installed head of the Democratic National Committee will be the lead strategist in the central political battle of 2010: the 38 governors races on the docket. With congressional redistricting coming in 2011, controlling as many governors mansion as possible is critical to the long-term political outlook for both parties. Obama insiders note that Kaine's experience running and winning a governor's race in a swing state like Virginia was one of the major factors that recommended him to the president-elect for the DNC job. He'll be put to the test early and often in the coming two years.
* Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.
Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.
* Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin: Herseth-Sandlin, who has held South Dakota's at-large congressional seat since 2004, may be the best candidate you've never heard of. That will likely change in 2010 as Herseth is expected to run for the open governor's seat in South Dakota and, if she does, is considered the odds-on favorite to win. Should she be elected governor, Herseth-Sandlin will immediately be thrown into the mix of candidates who will be mentioned for a possible run for national office in 2016 or beyond.
The impact of President-elect Barack Obama's rapid rise through the political ranks -- elected Senator in 2004 and president four years later -- is already being felt in the campaign world as scads of would-be senators and governors are emerging in the early days of the 2010 cycle
Call it the Obama effect -- an emboldening of already ambitious men and women who see the former Illinois Senator as an example that anything is possible in the unpredictable world of campaign politics.
Given what recruiters -- particularly on the Democratic side -- are describing as too many rather than too few candidates (not everyone who thinks they can be a statewide elected official is right), who should Fixistas keep an eye on in 2010? Who are the real stars-in-waiting out there?
The Fix -- ever cognizant of the needs of his readers -- has compiled a list to do just that. Below you'll find the 10 candidates/politicians to watch in 2010, the people who are likely to emerge as stars (or at least have the potential to do so) in the coming months. (Because we are not ranking them, they are listed in alphabetical order.)
Because the political landscape shifts on a day to day basis, this list, too, is decidedly changeable. So, we'll update our 10 for 2010 intermittently to provide Fixistas with the freshest knowledge out there.
Have candidates of your own to watch in 2010? Offer them in the comments section. If consensus emerges, we will add them to this post.
To the Line/List!
* Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next Senator for Colorado was "Who?". Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic Senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed Senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.
* Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan". The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.
* Chris Christie: The former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey entered the race for governor earlier this week -- and is regarded, at least by Washington insiders, as the likeliest candidate to emerge to take on Gov. Jon Corzine (D) this fall. Christie is a popular figure in the state thanks to his crusading reputation and attempts to clean up New Jersey's notoriously dirty politics but has never before run for elected office. Republicans continue to insist New Jersey is a state they can win and believe Christie is the candidate to do it.
* John Cornyn/Pete Sessions: The two Texans in charge of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee respectively have a daunting task on their hands. With Democrats in charge of every lever of power in Washington, Cornyn and Sessions must find a way to convince candidates to take a leap of faith that things will get better for their party in the coming years. Recruiting is the first step in the path back to a majority for Republicans and Sessions and Cornyn are on the front lines. How convincing can they be?
* Artur Davis: It's hard to see how any prospective 2010 candidate benefited more from Obama's election that this four-term Congressman from Alabama. Davis, a friend of the president-elect and fellow Harvard Law School graduate, will use the successful blueprint of Obama (run as a change agent who happens to be black, not the other way around) in what promises to be a terrific race for the open Alabama governor's seat. If he makes it through a VERY tough primary, watch for Davis' general election candidacy to draw considerable national attention.
* Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.
* Tim Kaine: The newly-installed head of the Democratic National Committee will be the lead strategist in the central political battle of 2010: the 38 governors races on the docket. With congressional redistricting coming in 2011, controlling as many governors mansion as possible is critical to the long-term political outlook for both parties. Obama insiders note that Kaine's experience running and winning a governor's race in a swing state like Virginia was one of the major factors that recommended him to the president-elect for the DNC job. He'll be put to the test early and often in the coming two years.
* Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.
Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.
* Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin: Herseth-Sandlin, who has held South Dakota's at-large congressional seat since 2004, may be the best candidate you've never heard of. That will likely change in 2010 as Herseth is expected to run for the open governor's seat in South Dakota and, if she does, is considered the odds-on favorite to win. Should she be elected governor, Herseth-Sandlin will immediately be thrown into the mix of candidates who will be mentioned for a possible run for national office in 2016 or beyond.
By Chris Cillizza January 9, 2009; 10:30 AM ET Category: The Line
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