That election, which you can read much more about here, got us to thinking about the men (and women) who will have leading roles in the re-formation of the Republican party over the next four years or so.
We took a first crack at this Line right after the 2008 election ended but the picture is significantly clearer today with some stars ascending (former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman) and others waning (California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner).
To be clear: this Line should not be taken as a proxy for the 2012 Republican presidential race. The goal is rather to highlight ten folks who will play a major role in leading Republicans out of the electoral wilderness in which they currently find themselves.
Agree or disagree with our picks or rankings? Offer your critique in the comments section below.
10. Rob Portman: The former head of the Office of Management and Budget in the Bush Administration, Portman is the odds-on GOP nominee for the opening created by Sen. George Voinovich's (R) retirement. Ohio is going to be a central battleground in the Senate fight and will be a focus of national attention due to its critical role in presidential politics. Portman is beloved among the Washington Republican establishment and, if he wins next fall, will immediately become a national player. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Eric Cantor: Cantor, as demonstrated in the ongoing fight over Obama's economic stimulus package, will be a high-profile voice for congressional Republicans for the foreseeable future. Cantor is affable and telegenic; he is also the rare Jewish Republican, which gives him a national platform and fundraising base. House members tend to struggle as voices for the national party as they get too bogged down in procedure and minutiae. Can Cantor break that pattern? (Previous ranking: 7)
8. Rush Limbaugh: Finding the right spot for "El Rushbo" on the Line was tough but not including him was never an option since every operative we talked to mentioned his name. Limbaugh is absolutely a player in defining what the party stands for and what its focus should be going forward and, as the only non-elected official on the Line, has the luxury of being able to speak hard truths. While Republican politicians would do well to avoid the appearance that they take their marching orders from Rush, discounting him entirely would be a mistake. (Previous ranking: N/A)
7. Mike Huckabee: No candidate in the 2008 GOP presidential field exceeded expectations more than Huckabee. He went from a little known southern governor to a national celebrity with his own show on the Fox News Channel. Many Republican strategists believe he should stop there and not think about running again in 2012. But, at the moment that seems unlikely as Huckabee is working to position himself (again) as the voice of social conservatives in the party. The question for Huckabee: can he move beyond the perception that he is enormously amusing as a candidate but lacks the gravitas to occupy the Oval Office? (Previous ranking: N/A)
6. Tim Pawlenty: In retrospect, T-Paw being passed over as John McCain's vice presidential pick might have been the best thing that ever happened to the Minnesota governor. He can now make a clean break from the GOP of 2000-2008 and offer his Wal-Mart Republican message as the cure for what ails the party. Pawlenty allies point to his state of the state address as a blueprint for where the party could go nationally in these tight economic times: increased funding for education, a cut in business taxes and a shrinking of state government. (Previous ranking: N/A)
5. Mark Sanford: Sanford is using his national platform as the current chair of the Republican Governors Association to its hilt -- penning a series of op-eds touting his unapologetic fiscal conservatism. Sanford is THE spokesman of the Club For Growth and, in case you forgot, he comes from South Carolina -- a state with a big say in the early days of the GOP presidential nominating contest. (Previous ranking: 6)
4. Bobby Jindal: Jindal continues to insist he will not run for president in 2012 and we believe him -- to a point. Since he is up for reelection in 2011, he has NO choice but to say the presidential race doesn't interest him. And, in truth, how Jindal manages the next few years will be critical in determining whether or not he will keep up the momentum built in late 2008. The state faces massive budget problems and how Jindal deals with it will be a MAJOR test for the youthful governor. (Previous ranking: 1)
3. Mitt Romney: Romney is the party's smartest and best messenger on the economy and therefore will be front and center in the debate over the way forward. Romney will be at the Homestead Resort this weekend to speak at the House GOP retreat, and is keeping his political operation running through his Free and Strong America PAC. Will Romney's Mormonism keep him from grabbing the brass ring again in 2012? Maybe. But that's debate for down the road. For now, Romney is a force to be reckoned with. (Previous ranking: 3)
We took a first crack at this Line right after the 2008 election ended but the picture is significantly clearer today with some stars ascending (former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman) and others waning (California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner).
To be clear: this Line should not be taken as a proxy for the 2012 Republican presidential race. The goal is rather to highlight ten folks who will play a major role in leading Republicans out of the electoral wilderness in which they currently find themselves.
Agree or disagree with our picks or rankings? Offer your critique in the comments section below.
10. Rob Portman: The former head of the Office of Management and Budget in the Bush Administration, Portman is the odds-on GOP nominee for the opening created by Sen. George Voinovich's (R) retirement. Ohio is going to be a central battleground in the Senate fight and will be a focus of national attention due to its critical role in presidential politics. Portman is beloved among the Washington Republican establishment and, if he wins next fall, will immediately become a national player. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Eric Cantor: Cantor, as demonstrated in the ongoing fight over Obama's economic stimulus package, will be a high-profile voice for congressional Republicans for the foreseeable future. Cantor is affable and telegenic; he is also the rare Jewish Republican, which gives him a national platform and fundraising base. House members tend to struggle as voices for the national party as they get too bogged down in procedure and minutiae. Can Cantor break that pattern? (Previous ranking: 7)
8. Rush Limbaugh: Finding the right spot for "El Rushbo" on the Line was tough but not including him was never an option since every operative we talked to mentioned his name. Limbaugh is absolutely a player in defining what the party stands for and what its focus should be going forward and, as the only non-elected official on the Line, has the luxury of being able to speak hard truths. While Republican politicians would do well to avoid the appearance that they take their marching orders from Rush, discounting him entirely would be a mistake. (Previous ranking: N/A)
7. Mike Huckabee: No candidate in the 2008 GOP presidential field exceeded expectations more than Huckabee. He went from a little known southern governor to a national celebrity with his own show on the Fox News Channel. Many Republican strategists believe he should stop there and not think about running again in 2012. But, at the moment that seems unlikely as Huckabee is working to position himself (again) as the voice of social conservatives in the party. The question for Huckabee: can he move beyond the perception that he is enormously amusing as a candidate but lacks the gravitas to occupy the Oval Office? (Previous ranking: N/A)
6. Tim Pawlenty: In retrospect, T-Paw being passed over as John McCain's vice presidential pick might have been the best thing that ever happened to the Minnesota governor. He can now make a clean break from the GOP of 2000-2008 and offer his Wal-Mart Republican message as the cure for what ails the party. Pawlenty allies point to his state of the state address as a blueprint for where the party could go nationally in these tight economic times: increased funding for education, a cut in business taxes and a shrinking of state government. (Previous ranking: N/A)
5. Mark Sanford: Sanford is using his national platform as the current chair of the Republican Governors Association to its hilt -- penning a series of op-eds touting his unapologetic fiscal conservatism. Sanford is THE spokesman of the Club For Growth and, in case you forgot, he comes from South Carolina -- a state with a big say in the early days of the GOP presidential nominating contest. (Previous ranking: 6)
4. Bobby Jindal: Jindal continues to insist he will not run for president in 2012 and we believe him -- to a point. Since he is up for reelection in 2011, he has NO choice but to say the presidential race doesn't interest him. And, in truth, how Jindal manages the next few years will be critical in determining whether or not he will keep up the momentum built in late 2008. The state faces massive budget problems and how Jindal deals with it will be a MAJOR test for the youthful governor. (Previous ranking: 1)
3. Mitt Romney: Romney is the party's smartest and best messenger on the economy and therefore will be front and center in the debate over the way forward. Romney will be at the Homestead Resort this weekend to speak at the House GOP retreat, and is keeping his political operation running through his Free and Strong America PAC. Will Romney's Mormonism keep him from grabbing the brass ring again in 2012? Maybe. But that's debate for down the road. For now, Romney is a force to be reckoned with. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Haley Barbour: Barbour is the rare combination of keen party strategist and elected official. (Trust us, there aren't that many out there.) And, he has the added bonus of not being a serious candidate in 2012 since a guy who helped invent lobbying in Washington isn't exactly the right profile to challenge President Obama in four years time. Barbour is the early favorite to chair the Republican Governors Association in 2010 and from that perch will have a huge opportunity to influence the party's message in the midterm elections. (Previous ranking: 9)
1. Sarah Palin: Like her or hate her, anything Palin does is big news. Her coming to Washington this weekend for the Alfalfa Dinner drew big coverage on the cables and even on the local news. What other Republican in the country can draw that sort of attention? Answer: None. Palin's formation of a PAC -- and her hiring of Becki Donatell -- suggest she is starting to get what she needs to do (rehab her image among the party's chattering class) if she wants to be taken seriously. (Previous ranking: N/A)
1. Sarah Palin: Like her or hate her, anything Palin does is big news. Her coming to Washington this weekend for the Alfalfa Dinner drew big coverage on the cables and even on the local news. What other Republican in the country can draw that sort of attention? Answer: None. Palin's formation of a PAC -- and her hiring of Becki Donatell -- suggest she is starting to get what she needs to do (rehab her image among the party's chattering class) if she wants to be taken seriously. (Previous ranking: N/A)
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