Sens. Roland Burris (Ill.), David Vitter (La.), Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Jim Bunning (Ky.) are among the most vulnerable incumbents in 2010.
The recently concluded Senate battle over President Obama's economic stimulus package reveals that although Democrats enjoy a relatively wide margin in the chamber they have scant room for defections if they want to pass legislation.
Without Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) voting on final passage due to his ongoing fight against brain cancer and the fate of the Minnesota Senate race still in doubt, Democrats had only 57 votes on their side for the legislation. That meant that they absolutely had to win over three Republicans in order to get the 60 votes required to avoid a GOP filibuster.
Democrats got it -- barely -- thanks to Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).
But, when it comes to other major Obama legislative initiatives, there's no guarantee that all 58 Democrats (or 59 if entertainer Al Franken winds up being seated in the Minnesota race) stick together or that the same trio of GOPers can be relied on to cross party lines. (Witness the struggle for 60 votes on the omnibus spending bill.)
All of that brings us to the importance of 2010 when the map -- for the third straight cycle -- favors Democrats and where the party must look to build a 60+ seat majority that would allow them true control over the Senate.
Privately, Democratic strategists acknowledge that they need to go big in 2010 in order to keep a working cushion (63? 64? 65?) for the 2012 and 2014 cycles when the map is far less favorable.
How high they can go depends in relatively equal parts on open seats, recruitment and the political environment.
On the first, five Republicans have already announced their retirement and Democrats are likely to be very competitive in every state but Kansas. (Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's ascension to Health and Human Secretary designate makes Kansas a real longshot for Democrats.)
On the second, Democrats have had successes and failures. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is a top tier recruit and Rep. Paul Hodes (N.H.) gets solid reviews. But, on the negative side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wasn't able to convince state CFO Alex Sink into the Florida open seat race.
The final factor -- the political environment -- is the most important and the hardest to predict at this point. Right now everything is roses for Democrats thanks in large part to Obama's popularity but much can change between now and next November.
As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties. Agree or disagree? The comments section awaits.
To the Line!
10. Colorado (D): The appointment of Sen. Michael Bennet shocked the political world because he was a political unknown outside of Denver with no record in elected office. While Bennet is certain to enjoy the perks of incumbency -- most notably fundraising -- he still has to spend the next two years building name identification statewide. That makes him potentially vulnerable to either a serious primary or general election challenge. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's name keeps coming up as a potential primary challenge, a race that likely would be competitive. Republicans insist they will make a run at Bennet but the names mentioned -- former Reps. Bob Beauprez and Scott McInnis -- have the look of re-treads. Those in the know say to keep an eye on state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, a rising star in the party who may well run for some statewide office in 2010. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Illinois (D): Appointed Sen. Roland Burris's string of problems relating to what he did or, more importantly, didn't reveal about his dealing with disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich probably make it impossible for him to run for a full term next year. And, that's good news for Democrats who would be favored in this strongly Democratic state if anyone other than Burris was their nominee. A fight appears to be brewing between former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary and, if both men run, it could get nasty. Even so, there's been no movement from Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in regards the race and without him Republicans have no obvious nominee. (Previous ranking: 6)
8. Nevada (D): Former Rep. Jon Porter's decision to take a job in Washington rather than pursue a race against Senate Majority Harry Reid (Nev.) takes one major GOP challenger off the table. Rep. Dean Heller (R) is still considering the race but party strategists don't expect a decision anytime soon. Whether or not they get Heller, Republicans will find someone credible to take on Reid who is reviled among the GOP base. And, remember, that Bruce Lunsford, who had lost two PRIMARY races in Kentucky almost beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in 2008. (Previous ranking: 9)
7. Louisiana (R): Ranking where Sen. David Vitter (R) should sit on the Line is a tough task. On the one hand, the family values conservative was forced to acknowledge moral wrongdoing when his name came up on the D.C. Madam's list of clients. On the other, Louisiana is becoming increasingly friendly to Republicans and Democrats don't have a candidate in the race yet. New polling by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog suggests Vitter is far from out of the woods and the possibility of former Focus on the Family head honcho Tony Perkins running in the Republican primary further complicates the incumbent's calculus. (Previous ranking: 7)
6. Pennsylvania (R): Former Rep. Pat Toomey's decision to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Republican primary in the Keystone State drastically reshapes the outlook for the race. Toomey came within two points of defeating the five-term incumbent in a primary battle in 2004 and a recent independent poll suggests that there is considerable dissatisfaction with Specter among the ranks of the base of the party. Toomey's emergence as a candidate likely means that Democrats won't be able to depend on Specter to vote with them much in the future -- a major development for Obama's agenda over the next two years. (Previous ranking: 8)
5. Florida (R): The open seat race to replace Sen. Mel Martinez (R) is on hold until Gov. Charlie Crist (R) decides whether or not he wants to run. While we continue to believe a Crist candidacy is less than a 50-50 bet, the declining state of the economy in Florida might well make the Senate a far more attractive option for the ambitious gov. While everyone is waiting to see what Crist will do, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has quietly been laying the financial groundwork to run if Crist doesn't. For Democrats, a primary is shaping up between state Sen. Dan Gelber and Rep. Kendrick Meek. (Previous ranking: 3)
4. Ohio (R): One secret to Senate Democrats' successes in the 2006 and 2008 cycle was the fact that they successfully cleared the primary field for their strongest candidate. It allowed the nominee to focus all of his/her time on fundraising and positioning for the general election among other advantages. But, in Ohio's open seat race, Senate Democrats have not been able to keep the field small -- watching as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (as well as several other lesser known candidates) jumped into the race. Does that mean Democrats can't win here? Absolutely not. But a contested primary does make it more difficult. Republicans, on the other hand, have cleared their field for former Rep. Rob Portman although the Fix is reserving judgment on just how great a candidate he will be, particularly with his extensive ties to the Bush administration. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Missouri (R): Landing Carnahan, widely regarded as the most talented member of her political family, as a candidate was a major win for Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, are still waiting to see whether former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman will challenge Rep. Roy Blunt in the GOP primary next year. Even if Blunt gets the nomination to himself, he will have a daunting task before him -- defending years of House Republican rule (in which time he served in leadership) that is decidedly not popular with the American public. One thing to remember about Missouri, however, that keeps Republicans in the game: Even while President Obama was sweeping the country with 365 electoral votes, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) managed to eke out a win in the Show Me State. (Previous ranking: 2)
2. Kentucky (R): The war of words between Sen. Jim Bunning (R) and Sens. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and John Cornyn (Texas) is something close to a disaster for Senate GOP strategists. Bunning, a renowned curmudgeon, is now openly hostile to the two leaders in his party and seems ready to run for reelection in 2010 simply to spite McConnell and Cornyn. And, don't forget that Bunning had a meager $150,000 in the bank at the end of 2008, an absolute pittance for an incumbent senator in this election cycle. The likely beneficiary is Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who came within a few points of ousting Bunning six years ago, and is running again. But, given the softness of Bunning's numbers, it's not hard to see other ambitious Democrats jumping into this race too. (Previous ranking: 4)
1. New Hampshire (R): The Granite State has been the epicenter of Republicans' decline in the Northeast over the las few elections. In 2006, both GOP House members were defeated and in 2008 Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beat incumbent John Sununu (R). That trend spells trouble for Republicans' chances in the open seat being left behind by Sen. Judd Gregg (R) in 2010. Rep. Paul Hodes is already in the race on the Democratic side and wins strong reviews from national Democrats although Rep. Carol Shea-Porter continues to leave open the possibility of a primary challenge. Republicans don't have an obvious candidate -- especially considering that Sununu does not seem interested in moving back to New Hampshire to run. Once Sununu formally removes his name, look for attention to turn to former Gov. Steve Merrill as the GOP's best candidate. (Previous ranking: 1)
Without Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) voting on final passage due to his ongoing fight against brain cancer and the fate of the Minnesota Senate race still in doubt, Democrats had only 57 votes on their side for the legislation. That meant that they absolutely had to win over three Republicans in order to get the 60 votes required to avoid a GOP filibuster.
Democrats got it -- barely -- thanks to Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).
But, when it comes to other major Obama legislative initiatives, there's no guarantee that all 58 Democrats (or 59 if entertainer Al Franken winds up being seated in the Minnesota race) stick together or that the same trio of GOPers can be relied on to cross party lines. (Witness the struggle for 60 votes on the omnibus spending bill.)
All of that brings us to the importance of 2010 when the map -- for the third straight cycle -- favors Democrats and where the party must look to build a 60+ seat majority that would allow them true control over the Senate.
Privately, Democratic strategists acknowledge that they need to go big in 2010 in order to keep a working cushion (63? 64? 65?) for the 2012 and 2014 cycles when the map is far less favorable.
How high they can go depends in relatively equal parts on open seats, recruitment and the political environment.
On the first, five Republicans have already announced their retirement and Democrats are likely to be very competitive in every state but Kansas. (Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's ascension to Health and Human Secretary designate makes Kansas a real longshot for Democrats.)
On the second, Democrats have had successes and failures. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is a top tier recruit and Rep. Paul Hodes (N.H.) gets solid reviews. But, on the negative side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wasn't able to convince state CFO Alex Sink into the Florida open seat race.
The final factor -- the political environment -- is the most important and the hardest to predict at this point. Right now everything is roses for Democrats thanks in large part to Obama's popularity but much can change between now and next November.
As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties. Agree or disagree? The comments section awaits.
To the Line!
10. Colorado (D): The appointment of Sen. Michael Bennet shocked the political world because he was a political unknown outside of Denver with no record in elected office. While Bennet is certain to enjoy the perks of incumbency -- most notably fundraising -- he still has to spend the next two years building name identification statewide. That makes him potentially vulnerable to either a serious primary or general election challenge. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's name keeps coming up as a potential primary challenge, a race that likely would be competitive. Republicans insist they will make a run at Bennet but the names mentioned -- former Reps. Bob Beauprez and Scott McInnis -- have the look of re-treads. Those in the know say to keep an eye on state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, a rising star in the party who may well run for some statewide office in 2010. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Illinois (D): Appointed Sen. Roland Burris's string of problems relating to what he did or, more importantly, didn't reveal about his dealing with disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich probably make it impossible for him to run for a full term next year. And, that's good news for Democrats who would be favored in this strongly Democratic state if anyone other than Burris was their nominee. A fight appears to be brewing between former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary and, if both men run, it could get nasty. Even so, there's been no movement from Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in regards the race and without him Republicans have no obvious nominee. (Previous ranking: 6)
8. Nevada (D): Former Rep. Jon Porter's decision to take a job in Washington rather than pursue a race against Senate Majority Harry Reid (Nev.) takes one major GOP challenger off the table. Rep. Dean Heller (R) is still considering the race but party strategists don't expect a decision anytime soon. Whether or not they get Heller, Republicans will find someone credible to take on Reid who is reviled among the GOP base. And, remember, that Bruce Lunsford, who had lost two PRIMARY races in Kentucky almost beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in 2008. (Previous ranking: 9)
7. Louisiana (R): Ranking where Sen. David Vitter (R) should sit on the Line is a tough task. On the one hand, the family values conservative was forced to acknowledge moral wrongdoing when his name came up on the D.C. Madam's list of clients. On the other, Louisiana is becoming increasingly friendly to Republicans and Democrats don't have a candidate in the race yet. New polling by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog suggests Vitter is far from out of the woods and the possibility of former Focus on the Family head honcho Tony Perkins running in the Republican primary further complicates the incumbent's calculus. (Previous ranking: 7)
6. Pennsylvania (R): Former Rep. Pat Toomey's decision to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Republican primary in the Keystone State drastically reshapes the outlook for the race. Toomey came within two points of defeating the five-term incumbent in a primary battle in 2004 and a recent independent poll suggests that there is considerable dissatisfaction with Specter among the ranks of the base of the party. Toomey's emergence as a candidate likely means that Democrats won't be able to depend on Specter to vote with them much in the future -- a major development for Obama's agenda over the next two years. (Previous ranking: 8)
5. Florida (R): The open seat race to replace Sen. Mel Martinez (R) is on hold until Gov. Charlie Crist (R) decides whether or not he wants to run. While we continue to believe a Crist candidacy is less than a 50-50 bet, the declining state of the economy in Florida might well make the Senate a far more attractive option for the ambitious gov. While everyone is waiting to see what Crist will do, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has quietly been laying the financial groundwork to run if Crist doesn't. For Democrats, a primary is shaping up between state Sen. Dan Gelber and Rep. Kendrick Meek. (Previous ranking: 3)
4. Ohio (R): One secret to Senate Democrats' successes in the 2006 and 2008 cycle was the fact that they successfully cleared the primary field for their strongest candidate. It allowed the nominee to focus all of his/her time on fundraising and positioning for the general election among other advantages. But, in Ohio's open seat race, Senate Democrats have not been able to keep the field small -- watching as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (as well as several other lesser known candidates) jumped into the race. Does that mean Democrats can't win here? Absolutely not. But a contested primary does make it more difficult. Republicans, on the other hand, have cleared their field for former Rep. Rob Portman although the Fix is reserving judgment on just how great a candidate he will be, particularly with his extensive ties to the Bush administration. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Missouri (R): Landing Carnahan, widely regarded as the most talented member of her political family, as a candidate was a major win for Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, are still waiting to see whether former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman will challenge Rep. Roy Blunt in the GOP primary next year. Even if Blunt gets the nomination to himself, he will have a daunting task before him -- defending years of House Republican rule (in which time he served in leadership) that is decidedly not popular with the American public. One thing to remember about Missouri, however, that keeps Republicans in the game: Even while President Obama was sweeping the country with 365 electoral votes, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) managed to eke out a win in the Show Me State. (Previous ranking: 2)
2. Kentucky (R): The war of words between Sen. Jim Bunning (R) and Sens. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and John Cornyn (Texas) is something close to a disaster for Senate GOP strategists. Bunning, a renowned curmudgeon, is now openly hostile to the two leaders in his party and seems ready to run for reelection in 2010 simply to spite McConnell and Cornyn. And, don't forget that Bunning had a meager $150,000 in the bank at the end of 2008, an absolute pittance for an incumbent senator in this election cycle. The likely beneficiary is Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who came within a few points of ousting Bunning six years ago, and is running again. But, given the softness of Bunning's numbers, it's not hard to see other ambitious Democrats jumping into this race too. (Previous ranking: 4)
1. New Hampshire (R): The Granite State has been the epicenter of Republicans' decline in the Northeast over the las few elections. In 2006, both GOP House members were defeated and in 2008 Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beat incumbent John Sununu (R). That trend spells trouble for Republicans' chances in the open seat being left behind by Sen. Judd Gregg (R) in 2010. Rep. Paul Hodes is already in the race on the Democratic side and wins strong reviews from national Democrats although Rep. Carol Shea-Porter continues to leave open the possibility of a primary challenge. Republicans don't have an obvious candidate -- especially considering that Sununu does not seem interested in moving back to New Hampshire to run. Once Sununu formally removes his name, look for attention to turn to former Gov. Steve Merrill as the GOP's best candidate. (Previous ranking: 1)
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